Nikon and PMA'07

[marokero]

While we wait to see if Nikon is going to announce any more equipment, specially the much awaited introduction of the D3 series, I'm going to post some of my speculations (hey, before the D2h came out I guessed the new AF module would be called MultiCAM 2000, and I was right ):

- D3h -
* 35mm sized 12mp sensor, 8fps nominal, 12fps 1.5x HSC
* UDMA 5 support
* rTTL introduction (built-in radio transceiver) with 32 digital channels compatible with Pocket Wizard
* large/bright viewfinder 100% view w/ 1.1x magnification
* MultiCAM 2500 (same 11 points, more sensitive, all [x] type sensors, not [+] or [T] or [-] types)
* OLED 2.5" screen w/ true 640x480x30fps resolution, perfectly viewable in direct sunlight at 178° angle
* ISO 100 to 3200, with HI 0.3, 0.7 and 1.0
* 16-channel readout, 32-bit A/D converter (built-in HDR anyone?), quad core PPU (photo processing unit), 512MB DDR4 buffer - Sandisk Extreme IV or Lexar 300x suggested - indefinite shooting in jpg (to capacity) or 90 nef
* auto switching to HSC mode when DX lenses are used
* uses the same EN-EL4/a, but needs different body caps.

SB-900R, SB-700R, and SU-900
* new rTTL uses radio to transmit/receive TTL data back and forth from camera/lens
* SU-900 allows SB-800 and SB-600 to be used in rTTL (uses 4 AA's, has 1/4-20 tripod mount at the bottom)
* rTTL good for 100-200m (328-656'); SU-900 can be used to relay the signal, extending reach
* improved/tighter hot-shoe attachment prevents wobbling

14-42 f/2G AF-X VR N - okay, this is just my dream exotic lens
* new SWM II is faster and more accurate
* three ceramic Super ED elements (thinner and lighter)
* carbon fiber reinforced aluminum chassis

24 f/1.4G AF-X N
* the replacement to the retired 28 f/1.4
* one ceramic Super ED element for good measure, and to make lens lighter

50 f/1.2G AF-X N
* sweet!!!

85 f/1.2G AF-X VR N
* again, ceramic Super ED elements to make it lighter and faster
* dude!!!!!!!!

400 f/2.8G AF-X VR N
* finally it arrives!

Let's see how many, if any, I get right this time

[JB]

I think it's still a little early for a Nikon full-frame DSLR. Some of those within Nikon do not want a FF DSLR which is slowing the release of the D3. Of course, the slower Nikon hesitates to release one, the more Canon gains ground. I haven't followed Nikon's internal engineering conflicts over the last year so maybe things have changed, but I doubt it.

An indication Nikon is going to release a FF DSLR at some point, is the several lenses released in the last few years which were NOT DX lenses.

If anything, we might see a development announcement during PMA, but honestly, I don't expect Nikon to announce much at PMA regarding DSLRs. Probably more lenses than anything. Then come June or so, Nikon MIGHT announce something in the way of a DSLR.

[JoePhoto]

As much as that sounds great - I think there are a few holes there.

The D3h won't be FF.

Why? Think of the nomenclature. This is assuming Nikon stayes with a 2 model pro line. If Nikon stays true with the last two pro announcements they will introduce the H model before the X model. Their sports/journalist camera is out first. That camera doesn't need to be FF and IMO benefits from being a cropped sensor.

If Nikon decides to keep the pro line separated into two models, then we will likely see a 1.5X 10MP LBCAST D3h at 8fps. Followed by the portrait/commercial camera: an 18MP 1.0 - 1.1x CMOS D3x at 5fps that may incorporate a hi-speed 8fps 1.5x DX crop mode.

If Nikon decides to drop the dual pro models, and go for one body, it's likely it will likely be named simply D3 with the same or similar specs to my D3x above.

Nikon doesn't need more sensitive AF, it needs smaller sensors in a better arrangement. So I don't see there being a hugh jump in AF sensitivity, but rather in design of that AF. It may also keep the same name or add "improved Cam-2000" (see the D200's Cam-1000 vs. the D80's Cam-1000. They have a few noteworthy differences but maintain the same name.)

I'm with JB thinking we'll see a development announcement at PMA or shortly after. I'm not sure about lenses, but they need to update their super-teles, 400mm and above and also update their fast primes. I wouldn't expect to see f/1.2 lenses though. Nikon seem to have abandoned anything faster than f/1.4. Though Nikon's lens R&D dept seems to work on only one thing at a time (manpower or facilities limitation perhaps). So expect one or the other, not both lines updated at once. But I'd love for them to proove me wrong.

Sadly, I don't think you'll see radio communication built into their speedlights out of the box, but perhaps as an add-on. I fear if they included it, the speedlight would be priced over $600 per unit for the pro model!

Hey - aren't we still waiting for VR teleconverters?!

[marokero]

I'm not going to try make any more predictions. I waste far too much time typing all this for nothing.

[JB]

LOL. Well, you were right in some respect. They DID release a DSLR. And a lens.

[marokero]

I guess I was in the general ballpark huh? :p

[JoePhoto]

Nah -You can't quit! Your predictions are so much more fun to read compared to what they actually release! I can imagine what some of the products might look like. :)